Ecological niche modeling, niche overlap, and good old Rabinowitz’s rarities applied to the conservation of gymnosperms in a global biodiversity hotspot

Biodiversity hotspots harbor 77% of endemic plant species. Patagonian Temperate Forest (PTF) is a part biodiversity hotspot, but over the past centuries, has been over-exploited, fragmented and replaced with exotic species plantations, lately also threatened by climate change. Our aim to better understand patterns habitat suitability niche overlap nine gymnosperm species, key elements PTF, complementing traditional approaches conservation. Using R packages 3016 occurrence data, we deployed ecological models (ENM) in MaxEnt via kuenm, classified according Rabinowitz’s types rarity. We then overlapped their niches calculating Schoener's D index, considered rarity spatial context. Finally, overlay high species’ protected areas detected conservation priorities using GapAnalysis. generated simplified ENMs for gymnosperms found that most overlap, only one displayed unique niche. Surprisingly, three have divergent habitats across landscape not related previously published geographic structure neutral genetic variation. showed rarer smaller volume tend have, six out studied priority, there are gaps PTF. approach unprotected suitable native at risk Suggesting integrating habitat-suitability multiple rarity, can be handy tool identify potential global hotspots.